Tom Alderman
2 min readSep 3, 2020


You may be among the many with industrial strength anxiety over a second Trump term. With current polls showing Joe Biden with a decent lead over the TwitterTwit, your heartburn might even lighten up a bite. Please keep in mind the momentary nature of presidential polling.

It is 1948. August-September. The Gallop Poll has New York’s Gov. Tom Dewey with a 6% lead over Pres. Harry Truman. Result: Truman wins by 4.4%

1980. October. Polls show Jimmy Carter topping Ronald Reagan by 6%. Result: Reagan whips Carter by almost 10%.

1988. September. Gov. Michael Dukakis has a 11.5% jump over Vice-President George H.W. Bush. Result: Bush wins with an 8% margin.

2016. Late October. Hillary Clinton has a 12 point lead over Donald Trump. Result: Trump wins the electoral collage by losing the popular vote by 2%.

2020. Now. All polls have Biden comfortably ahead. Five-Thirty-Eight has Biden 8.6% over Trump. Result: You get the idea.

Presidential polling is only a snapshot of the now. If the above Biden-heavy numbers suggest a surprise Trump victory, that is not the intent. It is a stark recognition of possible horror. You’ll understand if we Doubting Thomases are a mite pessimistic considering…

Some post office facilities will close. Mail-in ballots slow down or go missing. Trump insists all mail ballots are rigged. The Russians will not only exploit social media again, they are actually inside our digital systems. Re-engineering the vote count in key states is a real possibility be and cannot be ignored.

New polls numbers will keep flowing right up to the most consequential election day in modern times. All are of momentary importance. The final vote count is not.

Tom Alderman

Tom Alderman is a thirty year veteran media analyst, trainer and founder of MediaPrep.